GLOBALIZATION

Indian industry is bracing for the next wave of outsourcing from the U.S. For a change, this has nothing to do with business processing, information technology or call centers. It’s actually an entirely different sector — manufacturing textiles and garments. And as it happens this shift will be at the cost of jobs, mainly in the U.S. and European Union. There are also fears here that outsourcing textiles is the next political hot potato that might hit the U.S. in an election year, resulting in non-tariff barriers.

Textiles and garments have been one of one of India’s biggest export items, raking in $14 billion last year (compared to $10 billion in software.) Now, the sector is poised for a complete change. On Jan. 1, 2005, the 10-year-old Agreement on Textile and Clothing will come to an end in accordance with World Trade Organization rules. This will mark the beginning of a new regime where quotas that determined how much countries could sell each other will no longer exist. Till now low-cost countries like India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia could not increase their exports to lucrative markets such as U.S. and the EU due to the quotas.



India is going to be a major beneficiary after Jan. 1 next year when competition opens up. According to estimates by industry consultants KSA Technical, Indian textile exports could jump from $14 billion to $50 billion by 2010. High-cost destinations such as Mexico, the Caribbean and Central American countries apart from others in the Indian sub-continent such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are likely to lose out. The potential of the industry is also evident from the expected growth of the global textile trade, which is estimated to increase from $400 billion to $700 billion by the year 2010. The Indian government’s new textile policy has set a target of textile and apparel exports of $50 billion by 2010, which in terms of world share could mean a rise of 2 percentage points to 5.6 per cent. It is worthwhile to note that India’s information technology sector accounts for 0.5 per cent of world share and is considered the crown jewel of India’s success story.

The impact on the U.S. textile industry could be significant. According to a study by the Washington. D.C.-based American Textile Manufacturing Institute, more than 630,000 textile jobs could be lost in the U.S. and 1,300 plants could shut down due to the shift of manufacturing units to low-cost destinations, a killer blow to an already moribund industry. The study predicts that U.S. textile mills will lose billions of dollars in orders of yarns and fabrics. The two largest home textile companies in the U.S. — Pillowtex (shedding 6,500 jobs in North Carolina, the largest mass lay-off last year) and Westpoint Stevens shut shop and filed for bankruptcy last year resulting in substantial flight of manufacturing capacity to India.

In India, there is significant brewing of activity in preparation of the new regime, with several U.S. firms pitching for new business. Wal-mart, J C Penney Company, Target. Federated group, Russell Corporation, Sears Roebuck are among the major U.S. retail chains and apparel companies that are entering into new deals to step up outsourcing of textiles from India. According to a report in Business Today, during the three-day KSA Technical annual summit in February, Wal-Mart placed orders worth $500 million; J C Penney $300 million and French retail giant Carrefour $100 million. Executives from these companies have been flying into India looking for new suppliers ready to sign big contracts. JC Penney’s president (purchase), for instance, visited India recently and held discussions with key apparel-makers including the Aditya Birla Group Company Madura Garments. Reports suggest that JC Penney plans to source $700-800 million worth of apparel from India over the next few years. The three biggest retailers Wal-Mart, JC Penney and Target have buying offices in India.

Indian textile companies, on their part, have already embarked on a major capacity expansion to meet the manifold increase in demand. All textile majors, including Raymond, Zodiac, Welspun, Arvind and even some medium and small companies are expanding capacities. Arvind Mills has already doubled its garment capacity at Bangalore. Raymond, one of India’s largest fabric makers, is setting up a suit and trouser plant in Bangalore. Zodiac Clothing has recently expanded its shirt manufacturing capacity from 5– 6 million shirts per annum. Leading garment producers like OrientCraft and Creative Garments are building substantial additional capacities.

Currently, India is focused more on low-value fabric exports than high-value apparel/clothing exports due to quota restrictions and government policies. The key lies in moving up the value chain by increasing garment exports, removing technological obsolescence and improving quality. It is expected that the removal of quotas will provide the necessary fillip to building scale, upgrading resources and productivity.

India has several advantages over other countries with similar conditions and lower costs except China. There is a vertical integration of the complete production process — from growing of raw material cotton to in-betweens such as yarn, fabrics and garments. India is the third largest producer of cotton with highest area under cotton cultivation in the world. It is the second-largest textile producer in the world with a rooted tradition in textile production. Combined with cheap labor and skilled manpower at low cost, most competitors around the world (except China) do not hold too much of a threat. Also, several buyers from the U.S. and EU want to develop India as an alternative source to China in order to prevent the growth of a monopolistic player in the market. China is subject to quota restrictions till 2008 because of its late entry into the WTO. Hence, analysts believe that post-Jan 1, 2005 will result in a disproportionate gain in market share for Indian exports.

However, the main fear yet is the fall-out in the U.S. consequent to the outsourcing of textile. Two years ago when cheap steel imports rocked the country, it culminated in the controversial anti-dumping duty (since thrown out by WTO). If textile turns into a political issue, there is likelihood of non-quantitative barriers. Unlike the software industry, India’s textile sector is largely disorganized and may be open to such attacks as lack of minimum working conditions, wages, child labor and environmental concerns. But, with a bit of luck and diplomacy, it is quite likely that after software, textiles will be the next big outsourcing story with billion-dollar deals the order of the day.